Index︎Reports︎Draft Report: Lagos Intelligence Profile

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Last edited date: 8 June 2036

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Lagos City: Case Study

Brief
Nigeria’s Lagos is the largest city in Africa, having broken the 26 million population figure in 2034, and on track to hit 26.5 million by the end of the decade within the city, and 33 million in the greater Lagos Metropolitan Area. Though at the beginning of the century Lagos was defined by rapid, unplanned urban growth, progressive leadership and the local effects of global recession allowed the city to take major steps in expanding more methodically through the 2020s. With the further creation of zoning guidelines, the Lagos of the future seems to be bright. However, massive swathes of the city, especially the coastal areas, continue to subsist in “feral” slum conditions, defined by nonexistent or ad hoc infrastructural systems, fires, flooding, and organized political militancy.

Lagos is also home to Lekki Free City, the world’s second largest container port behind Shanghai. Though LFC is a separate entity from Lagos with respect to administration, land usage, and policy, LFC is generally considered to be a part of Lagos by Nigeria State officials. This report will follow the same conventions.

Figures
  • Area (mq): 2,452.9
  • Population: 17,552,942
  • Density (sq mi): 12,000
  • Number of districts: 21 Local Government Areas

  • Extra figures
  • Population growth: 5% per annum
  • Projected Population by 2055: 29 million
  • Lagos State’s revenues that is internally generated: over 75%

Military Profile of Lagos Metropolitan Area
Lagos presents significant difficulties to any attempt to engage in military operations, however none that should present a surprise to any warfighter that has gone through UCO training. Traditional A2/AD will likely be impossible to maintain, logistics and ISR will be an impossibility until a FOB can be established, and ‘euclidean’ battle tactics will prove limiting. In addition, Lagos’ local insurgency groups are sufficiently technologically advanced in cyber operations and counter-operations as well as “re-routering” intranet practices. Despite the great advancements made by THEIA’s takeover of the One World Terrain program, the highly ambiguous, variable, and complex terrain of the city makes its usage necessarily limited and resistant to mapping or synthetic environment applications, and any data should be sight-checked in the field according to FM 3-06: The New Urban Doctrine for Complex Environments.


Morphology
The urban environment of Lagos is a highly complex patchwork, oscillating between two contrasting but co-existing modes: on one hand, there are powerful business districts, characterized by world-class architecture, towers, planned open space, well maintained infrastructure, and tight security provided either by Nigerian Strategic Security Special Police Command (Strat-Sec) or private security forces. Areas that fit this profile are Eko Atlantic, Lekki Free Zone, and Ambode Central Business District. These capitals are cosmopolitan and vibrant, hosting multinational corporations, luxury residences for urban professionals, and nightlife, along with a variety of expat communities.

Contrasted with the business districts are the marginal zones, or “slums”, which are defined by close kinship, ‘black’ economies, ethnic homogeneity, and informal, unplanned construction of buildings and infrastructure. These areas are often patrolled by local armed street gangs, which may be allied with larger political and religious movements. Areas that fit this profile are the Ajeromi Islands district, Tin Can Town, Ikoyi, and Victoria Island. These areas are some of the most densely inhabited in the world, in some cases at an estimated 900,000 people/km2.